The Palmer Sweat

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Season two of the PGA TOUR docu-series “Full Swing” is back on Netflix with another eight episodes. Confirmed pros featured this season include Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Keegan Bradley, Tom Kim, Joel Dahmen, Wyndham Clark, Justin Rose, brothers Matt and Alex Fitzpatrick and Ryder Cup captains Zach Johnson and Luke Donald.

We won’t spoil any of the new season but we do want to talk a little bit about episode one. In the first episode, Full Swing heavily focuses on Rory McIlroy and his loyalty to the PGA Tour. It highlights the narrative of LIV Golf not being “legit” and how those guys won’t be competitive in the majors, because the league itself is not competitive. This all gets flipped on it’s head when current and future (s/o Jon Rahm) LIV Golfers took 4 out of the top 6 spots in the 2023 Masters.

Season 2 starts out by diving into the behind the scenes of the narrative shift on LIV Golf and ultimately the merger / partnership agreement between the two leagues just a couple weeks after Brooks Koepka took home the first major for LIV at the PGA Championship.

The PGA TOUR is dying for one of it’s superstars to step up this season and win one of their “signature events”. The past three winners (Chris Kirk, Wyndham Clark, Hideki Matsuyama) haven’t really moved the needle in their battle to keep viewership interested heats up against LIV.

The good news is this next stretch of golf in Florida starting with this weekends event at Bay Hill and closing with The PLAYERS should have the best players on TOUR in each event, which should make for some high drama finishes with names people know.

A narrative we’re following closely this weekend is Justin Thomas rediscovering his swagger. He has shown some promise early in 2024. In four events played, he’s got two top-10’s and a top-15. Look for him to be a problem this weekend for whoever wants the smoke.

Jordan Spieth strokes gained total over the last 3 months on tour is at +2.3 (per Data Golf). He also shot a 4-under, 68 in the first round of last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Scrambling and par saves are the name of the game with all the long Par-4’s at Bay Hill, we like Spieth to keep the big numbers in check and go low tomorrow, UNDER 70.5 for round 1.

Arnold Palmer’s kingdom is a power players paradise and Jake Knapp is quickly becoming one of the hottest power players on Tour. With Knapps power and the large greens and soft conditions, we’re betting on the hot hand to keep his 4+ birdie streak alive in tomorrows opening round.

If you’re looking for a fun sweat to get you through work on Thursday, look no further than a fairways hit bet. Morikawa is paired with Rory McIlroy for an afternoon tee time of an elevated event, you can bet this pairing will have every single shot broadcasted tomorrow afternoon. Morikawa had the 2nd highest total on Prize Picks for fairways. We’re looking to fade Collin tomorrow with the driver and take the under on 9.0 fairways hit.

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